July 7, 2003
Skipping your summer vacation? If so, you're not alone. In response to the uncertain job market, more people are postponing or canceling their vacation plans. In a recent poll, ComPsych found that more than half (56%) of employees are postponing vacation time until the work situation improves - and nearly half (44%) are taking limited vacation time this year
Time out. If you are seeking a new job, you cannot afford to take July, August and September off, but at least one study suggests that the job market will remain weak.
The survey by Manpower Inc. reports two-thirds of employers don't expect to hire any additional workers and 9 percent plan to eliminate jobs during the July-to-September quarter ''Let's try not to get anyone too depressed, but the facts are the facts,'' said Jeffrey Joerres, chairman and chief executive officer of Manpower, which surveys 16,000 businesses for its quarterly survey.
Although 20 percent of employers in the survey said they plan to add jobs, competition for work is expected to be high. Six percent are uncertain about their employment plans.
''We're still waiting for some indication that we'll achieve stability and then actually gain some growth,'' Ayre said.
The education and nondurable goods manufacturing sectors are facing the biggestimpact, with each group's employment levels for the third quarter the lowest in 20 years, according to the survey.
Education jobs are at their lowest level in 27 years of Manpower data, with more employers expecting to cut jobs than those who are expecting to increase jobs.
Employment estimates across the United States are relatively consistent, with the South reporting slightly stronger hiring expectations and the Northeast expecting the slowest hiring pace for the third consecutive quarter.
How bad is it? Registered Rep. Magazine recently said, "Depends on how you count it."
The securities industry has lost a record number of jobs, according to a recent report from the Securities Industry Association. But as a percentage of total jobs, the 1973-1974 period was worse.
The report in Registered Rep. noted that overall securities industry employment fell to 705,700 in February 2003, a 10 percent drop from the all-time high of 786,100 recorded in April of 2001. The job losses far exceed cuts recorded in the years following other historical market declines, according to the report. The 1987 market crash resulted in nearly 40,000 net job losses as compared to 80,400 lost since April 2001. In the years following the 1973-74 bear market, the industry shed 34,400 jobs.
But, as a percentage of total employees, the recent bear market job cuts haven't bit as deeply as the 1973-1974 bear market, in which the Dow dropped by 45 percent in 23 months. During that period, the securities industry shed 17 percent of its employees.
That total includes back-office personnel, investment bankers and others.
The state of New York and New York City have experienced record declines in securities-related jobs of 18 percent and 19 percent respectively over the past two years.
Benefits, too. Just as fund companies have cut staff, they've taken quiet steps to reduce other headcount-related costs. Some have at least temporarily suspended their 401(k) matches. The latest cut was reported at The Charles Schwab Corporation. Schwab has periodically cut staff over the past two years. Through open employee communication and by treating departing team members respectfully, however, the firm continues to enjoy the benefits of a loyal workforce.
